4
Debt
Debt to credit institutions and central banks increased by DKK
4.7bn to DKK 13.7bn (DKK 9.0bn at end-2024), mainly due to
increased repurchase agreements with Nordea Bank following
the refinancing auctions in the second quarter of 2025.
Bonds in issue at fair value were down by DKK 7.8bn to DKK
393.1bn (DKK 400.9bn at end-2024) after offsetting the
portfolio of own bonds. The decrease was mainly due to an
increase in the portfolio of own bonds.
Equity
Including net profit for the period, total equity amounted to
DKK 21.9bn at the end of June 2025 compared with DKK
22.3bn at end-2024 and DKK 21.6bn at the end of June 2024.
The property market
The economy
The OECD has lowered its global growth forecast to 2.9% for
both 2025 and 2026, while the World Bank projects growth of
2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. These figures are nearly half a
percentage point lower than anticipated at the start of the
year, reflecting rising trade barriers and heightened
geopolitical uncertainty.
In the Euro area, the OECD forecasts growth of 1.0% in 2025
and 1.2% in 2026, while the World Bank offers more subdued
estimates of 0.7% and 0.8%. These substantial downgrades
reflect a combination of higher US tariffs on imports from the
EU, weaker external demand and heightened uncertainty.
According to the World Bank, these factors are expected to
more than offset the impact of newly legislated fiscal spending
on defence and infrastructure.
Despite the challenging global environment, the Danish
economy remains exceptionally strong. Growth has been
robust since the pandemic, employment has reached record
highs, inflation is under control and both the current account
balance and public finances are among the strongest globally.
Overall, the Danish economy is assessed to be in balance,
with prospects of moderate growth in the coming years.
Interest rates
Interest rate developments in recent years have been
characterised by significant volatility. From spring 2022 to
autumn 2023, central banks across the Western world raised
rates sharply to bring high inflation under control. In the US,
the Federal Reserve lifted its policy rate to 5.5%, while the
European Central Bank (ECB) reached 4.0%.
In the US, the Federal Reserve has now lowered its leading
interest rate to 4.5%. Given the continued high uncertainty
regarding US economic and trade policy, a weakened labour
market and the prospect of higher inflation, we now expect the
Federal Reserve to lower the rate to 4.25%, but then remain
cautious about further easing. However, the uncertainty is
significant.
As inflation has receded markedly, the ECB has now lowered
its rate to 2.0%, a move mirrored by the Danish Central Bank,
which has reduced its rate to 1.6%. At this stage, we do not
expect further rate cuts from the ECB.
Long-term mortgage rates have been remarkably stable over
the past year, while short-term mortgage rates have declined.
At the end of June 2025 the effective rate on 30-year fixed-
rate loans stood at 4.1% compared with 4.3% at the same
time last year. End-June 2025 the F3 and F5 rates were 2.2%
and 2.5%, respectively, down from 3.2% and 3.1% a year
earlier.
We expect both long- and short-term mortgage rates to rise
modestly from current levels over the coming years, though
uncertainty remains considerable. The ECB’s balance sheet
reduction, ongoing since March 2023, combined with
increased public spending in the EU – particularly on defence
and the green transition – may exert upward pressure on
long-term rates. In addition, political uncertainty in both the
US and Europe could drive interest rate markets in either
direction.
Figure 1. Interest rates
Property prices and market activity for owner-occupied
dwellings and holiday homes
The housing market has remained robust over the past year.
In June 2025 prices of single-family homes and owner-
occupied flats were 5.2% and 11.0% higher,
respectively,
compared with a year earlier, while prices of holiday homes
increased by 2.1%. The average price per square metre for
transacted properties – including single-family homes, flats
and holiday homes – is at a record high.
Transaction activity has remained strong, and average price
discounts on property sales have stayed relatively low. The
increase in prices is supported by several factors, including a
strong Danish economy, record-high employment, rising real
wages, falling short-term interest rates – particularly
refinancing rates – and reduced property taxes.
We expect housing prices to continue rising moderately
through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, although
fluctuations in interest rates and global economic uncertainty
are potential risk factors.
Residential rental properties
The market for residential rental properties has low vacancy
rates and a stable yield level. A notable increase in investor
interest was seen in the first half of 2025 compared with the
first half of 2024. The trend in the market is that investors
focus on existing properties in well-established areas
compared to building new properties.
Office properties
The ongoing split in the office market between modern and
well-located properties and older properties or properties with
less good locations continues. High construction costs are
pushing developers to reconsider timeframes, and a decrease
in land area under construction is still seen. Increased focus
on ESG is seen, but both investors and tenants are still
unwilling to pay more. Sustainable features and a strong
preference for flexibility are regarded as the most desirable
attributes, along with public transportation.