The Ukraine crisis has shaken financial markets, hitting all asset classes and causing global risk aversion. The escalation comes at a time when anxiety is already high in markets as central banks prepare to withdraw the ample liquidity injected during the coronavirus crisis.
The conflict has also triggered a spike in energy prices from already high levels, sending oil and natural gas prices surging. High energy prices will continue to be a concern, adding uncertainty to how central banks will progress with monetary policy tightening, according to Nordea’s analysts.
Nordea Markets’ macroeconomists and market strategists are hard at work to keep you updated on all the latest market developments and the impact on the global and Nordic economies.
Get a snapshot of their latest research in English below:
Chief Economist's Corner: The war in Ukraine hits the economy and leads to a new world order
30 Mar 2022
"A global recession is not imminent, but shortages of some goods may occur, and inflation will remain high in the coming period."
Week Ahead: Flat as a pancake
25 Mar 2022
“Global bond sell-off deepened and the US yield curve continued to flatten. There are early signs that consumer sentiment has deteriorated clearly since the Russian assault started, and rising inflation puts pressure on private consumption.”
Major forecasts: When neutral is not enough
18 Mar 2022
“We now expect the Fed to need to raise rates to above neutral. The ECB will move more slowly, but it is already on the move. We see more upside for longer yields but EUR/USD may have already bottomed.”
Week Ahead: Some certainty amidst all the uncertainty
11 Mar 2022
“Markets have started to price in larger stagflation risks, while both the ECB and the Fed are focusing mainly on the upside inflation risks. The Russian attack does not appear to have had any big permanent impact on the course of bond yields.”
The petroleum tax bomb – part III
8 Mar 2022
“The war in Ukraine has pushed oil & gas prices to new heights. The massive amounts of NOK bought today by oil & gas companies to cover future taxes will eventually be sold by Norges Bank. In the meantime, we will see upward pressure on Nibor.”
Finland: Will the bear (market) hit Finnish assets?
8 Mar 2022
Finnish assets have been under pressure lately, partly due to the exposure of the Finnish economy towards Russia. Risks of further underperformance remain, but we do not find any signs of a political risk premium in prices.
The countless consequences of the Russian raid
1 Mar 2022
“Due to the huge uncertainty prevailing, we drafted three scenarios for the economic consequences of the Russian attack. While uncertainty is high, we think the bar is high for the ECB to fully abandon the plans of policy normalization.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hits the Danish government bond market and causes spreads to widen even further
1 Mar 2022
“Wednesday, 2 March 2022 the Danish Central Bank will be offering DGB24 and DGB31. Read our view on the DGB market at page 2 in our huge Quant Pack and find all the answers on DGBs in the following 76 pages.”
Russia: More sanctions announced
25 Feb 2022
“Russia has invaded Ukraine, and Western countries responded with fresh sanctions. The Russian ruble faces depreciation pressure and the Russian central bank has started interventions in the foreign exchange market.”
Danish bonds hit by the Russian invasion of Ukraine
24 Feb 2022
“Today’s truly sad development is hitting the Danish market hard across the segments. Both covered bonds and government bonds are underperforming peers. Add to this that the underperformance is happening at a level where the callable bonds are cheap in the global perspective. This just underlines that the situation is very difficult to predict. That being said, we continue to like the value in Danish covered bonds but recognize that the market conditions are tricky so buy gradually over some time.”