Charting a sustainable course: Key trends in global shipping

Maritime transport is the backbone of global trade, facilitating over 80% of worldwide commerce by volume. In 2023, global maritime trade increased by 2.4%, reaching 12.3 billion tonnes, rebounding from the 2022 contraction. Projections from the latest UNCTAD report suggest an average annual growth rate of 2.4% through 2029. However, ton-miles (the unit of freight transportation equivalent to one tonne moved one mile) have increased, up by 4.2% due to disruptions in key routes such as the Suez and Panama Canals. This has strained supply chains and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Geopolitical tensions and the rising frequency of extreme weather events further threaten stability, with their impact extending into 2025 and beyond.

Key trends affecting shipping’s transition

Decarbonisation efforts

The shipping industry, which accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, is intensifying efforts to reduce its carbon footprint. At the IMO’s MEPC83 talks, member states agreed to adopt a legally binding Net-Zero Framework that includes a Global Fuel Standard (GFS) for ships and a global emissions pricing mechanism. The IMO Net-Zero Framework is due for adoption in October 2025 before entering into force in March 2027 and taking effect from 1 January 2028.

The GFS is a yearly emission intensity reduction target calculated using a well-to-wake approach. Ships failing to meet the target will pay for every extra tonne of CO2 equivalent emitted, while ships outperforming the target will be rewarded. Part of the revenues generated from these penalties will be dedicated to green fuels development. The Net-Zero Framework allows for a private market where low-emission vessels can sell CO2 equivalent surplus units to underperforming vessels. 

At the European level, FuelEU Maritime—a regulation intended to lower GHG emissions from ships operating within EU waters—entered into force on 1 January 2025. Norway, as a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), is expected to adopt the regulation, although implementation is currently delayed. Despite the delay, the Norwegian Maritime Authority advises shipping companies to prepare monitoring plans in line with EU deadlines. 

Digitalisation and new technologies also contribute to the industry’s decarbonisation efforts, allowing for operational and cost efficiencies (e.g. route optimisation and minimisation of fuel consumption) and better data quality.

Change in fleet dynamics with the global energy transition

There is uncertainty around how fleet dynamics will develop long-term with the global energy transition. While demand for oil and coal is expected to decrease in alignment with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 1.5 degree scenario, demand for other bulk commodities, such as minerals and chemicals (e.g. methanol), may increase due to growing focus on renewable energy. The future demand for specific goods will dictate the capacity needed for different ship segments, impacting both the number of vessels in each segment and vessels’ capacity. 

For vessels carrying commodities that will experience declining demand, repurposing, whenever possible, could mitigate stranded assets risk for shipping companies and potentially also avoid additional emissions from scrapping and newbuilding. For example, coal carriers can be relatively easily adapted to carry other dry commodities. However, other vessel types may not be repurposed that easily and the costs of repurposing the vessels versus ordering a new one should be carefully evaluated. 

Seafarer training

Comprehensive training programmes must be developed to equip the global seafaring workforce with the skills to safely manage new technologies and alternative fuels. Zero and near-zero GHG emission fuels — such as ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen — present unique operational and safety challenges. These fuels are more hazardous than traditional marine fuels, requiring specialised handling, storage, and emergency response training. Addressing this skills gap is essential for ensuring a safe and efficient transition to a low-emission shipping industry.

Green corridors

Reducing emissions from shipping requires major investments in infrastructure for the production and supply of alternative fuels. Green corridors—designated maritime routes where the decarbonisation of shipping is accelerated through public and private collaboration—are emerging as key enablers of this transition. The Clydebank Declaration for Green Shipping Corridors announced at COP26, supports the establishment of at least six such corridors, with 44 currently under development globally. These corridors will contribute to the development of alternative fuel supply chains, serve as real-world testing grounds for new technologies, and help scale industry-wide decarbonisation efforts. Ensuring the success of green corridors will require cooperation across the entire value chain, from fuel producers and port operators to regulators and financial institutions. (See the European Maritime Transport Environmental Report (EMTER) 2025 and Getting to Zero Coalition - Annual progress report on green shipping corridors.)

Geopolitical disruptions

Events such as drought-related disruptions in the Panama Canal and conflicts affecting the Suez Canal and the Red Sea areas have significantly impacted freight rates and lengthened shipping routes. The ongoing war in Ukraine has further complicated shipping in the Black Sea, contributing to the expansion of the “dark/shadow” fleet as Russia attempts to bypass international sanctions on its crude oil and petroleum products exports. The IMO plans to address concerns about the "dark/shadow fleet" evading compliance and insurance costs in its 2025 agenda. 

The EU proposed in February the amendment of the Vessel Monitoring Directive (2002/59/EC). The proposal requires ships entering areas of mandatory ship reporting systems (MRS), including those sailing along EU Member States' coasts but not entering ports, to provide proof of insurance, thereby enhancing monitoring and investigation of uninsured or unsafe vessels.

Climate disruptions

The impact of climate change on shipping routes is expected to intensify over time if net-zero pathway targets are not met across all industries. More frequent extreme weather conditions may delay or interrupt trade patterns, damage vessels, cargo and port infrastructures, disrupting global supply chains. Extreme weather events increase the likelihood of incidents and oil spills through the entire shipping process, from loading to transporting cargo. The consequences of climate change may pose significant challenges for shipping and the insurers covering them. Climate change will likely intensify geopolitical tensions, while geopolitical factors such as longer shipping routes and higher fuel consumption are already driving up costs and CO2 emissions. 

Aging fleet and financing challenges

The global fleet is ageing, with many vessels nearing the end of their service life. Despite stringent environmental targets, fleet renewal has been slow. Low demolition rates and robust second-hand markets have delayed investment in cleaner, more efficient vessels. Significant capital investment is required to build new vessels, retrofit existing ones, and decommission outdated tonnage to meet decarbonisation targets.

Action required to prevent emissions growth

The maritime industry stands at a defining moment, navigating climate regulations, geopolitical disruptions, and fleet renewal challenges while embracing technological advancements to drive efficiency. Emissions have risen by about 10% since 2008 – a far smaller increase than that in shipping activity (measured in tonne-kilometres), which increased by almost 50%. The prospects for shipping emissions depend on policies to drive faster efficiency gains, a switch to low-emissions fuels, and to support innovation (IEA, 2024). 

Collaboration between regulators, industry stakeholders, and the global workforce is essential to accelerate decarbonisation, secure investment in green technologies, and ensure the sector’s resilience in the face of future challenges.

Nordea as a bank supports the shipping sector in its net-zero transition by offering a range of different solutions and products to our large as well as small- and medium-sized customers.