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Top 5 hidden FX risks from doing business in emerging markets
Local regulations in emerging markets can result in time-consuming administrative process and trapped cash. Don't get caught off guard. Jana Poulsenova, Managing Director in Nordea Markets, shares the top risks to be aware of when doing business in these markets.
Nordea Group Chief Economist: Central banks face a delicate balancing act
2023 looks set to be yet another uncertain and challenging year. Although inflation seems to have peaked, it is still an open question how much further monetary policy tightening is needed to lower it substantially.
The Nordea On Your Mind team is out with a new report, and this time the authors are focusing on a topic on the minds of many these days: inflation. Why is it back from the dead? Where does it come from? How do we control it?
It's not too late to protect your business against Sweden’s rising interest rates
The increase in interest rates in Sweden over the past year has been significant, and the upward trend is likely to continue in the near term. There is a way to protect your business against rising interest costs. Nordea's corporate loan with an interest rate cap offers the benefits of a floating-rate loan and the protection of a fixed interest rate ceiling.
How much will the pressure on the Norwegian economy affect wage growth and inflation going forward? That is one of the key questions Norges Bank needs to consider when setting interest rates. If labour shortages do not improve significantly ahead of this year’s pay talks, wage growth, and thus the interest rate peak, could exceed Norges Bank’s expectations.
Global growth is weak at the moment. However, there are signs that 2023 could uncork positive surprises, as mild weather has eased the energy crisis in Europe and China is set to rebound after ending its zero-COVID policy. From the financial markets’ perspective, one of the key questions is how easily inflation will come down in 2023.
Weaker purchasing power will dampen consumer spending in Norway, and unemployment may rise from a very low level. But we think the Norwegian economy will fare better than many other countries, one reason being sharply higher activity in the petroleum sector.
Lower prices and stagnating turnover are dominating the Danish housing market. The decline is especially caused by rapidly rising interest rates, and it is expected to continue until 2024. However, the starting point is strong, and that is why the situation after the financial crisis will not likely be repeated.
Swedish pay talks in the new inflation environment
Half of all wage earners will get new wage deals in early 2023. The unions’ wage claim is 4.4%, while employers’ bid is 2.0% and a one-off amount of SEK 3,000.
The Danish economy is clearly positioned for a period with lower activity. However, there is a risk that the slowdown will be self-reinforcing – not least in the housing market where a significant correction of market prices is taking place.
The outlook for the Swedish economy is worrying. After many years of debt build-up, the resultant vulnerability is now being tested and will contribute to a decline in the economy in 2023.
The Finnish economy is headed towards a mild recession this winter, but for the full year we forecast zero growth. Consumer purchasing power is constrained at the moment, but easing inflation and rising salaries will boost private consumption towards the end of the year.