Oceans under pressure: Balancing fisheries, aquaculture and environmental resilience

The aquaculture and fishing sectors are at a crossroads as the planet faces unprecedented environmental challenges. 2024 has been confirmed as the warmest year on record by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), marking the first time the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Each year in the last decade is one of the ten warmest on record.

Globally, oceans are changing. The average ocean surface temperature was 0.88°C higher in 2011-2020 compared to 1850-1900. Ocean oxygen levels are expected to decrease 3-4% by 2100. The ocean’s acidification has also increased, with its pH 30% lower in 2023 compared to 1700. These changes in the marine environment may be occurring at a speed too fast for species to adapt.

Marine heatwaves and other human-induced impacts are pushing marine ecosystems to their limits, threatening marine biodiversity, aquaculture productivity, fisheries and the livelihoods of millions of people worldwide. Additional climate impacts, such as species migration and the immigration of non-indigenous species, are affecting food webs and reducing marine primary production.

Figure: Anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature for 2024. Colour categories refer to the percentiles of the temperature distributions for the 1991–2020 reference period. The extreme (‘coolest‘ and ‘warmest‘) categories are based on rankings for the period 1979–2024. Values are calculated only for the ice-free oceans. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

Source: Global Climate Highlights 2024 | Copernicus 

Aquaculture and fisheries in numbers

Over the decades, aquatic animal food consumption has grown rapidly, outpacing global population growth. In 2022, global aquaculture production achieved an all-time record of 130.9 million tonnes, up by 8.1 million tonnes from 122.8 million tonnes in 2020 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2024). 

Aquaculture production has surpassed capture fisheries for years in several countries, particularly for major aquaculture producers. However, fisheries remain essential for the global economy, with global catch production showing a continued static trend in 2022, fluctuating between 86 million tonnes and 93 million tonnes per year since the late 1980s (FAO, 2024). 

Fishing and aquaculture are economically significant sectors in Scandinavian countries, with Norway leading the region. As the world’s second-largest exporter of aquatic animal products after China, Norway produced 1.6 million tonnes of aquatic organisms in 2022, surpassing the entire output of the European Union. Meanwhile, Denmark ranked as the EU's third-largest country by catch volume, with the top three EU countries collectively accounting for half of the total aquatic organisms caught in 2023. In contrast, Sweden and Finland reported significantly smaller catches. 

Policy landscape in Europe

The “farm to fork“ strategy, a key component of the European Green Deal, underlines farmed seafood's potential as a source of protein with a low-carbon footprint and sets the objective of increasing organic aquaculture significantly by 2030. Norway, as a major global seafood producer, has also developed its sustainable food system strategy.

Aquaculture

The Norwegian Food Safety Authority released a list of aquaculture producers that will undergo audits in 2025. The inspections aim to ensure that farming practices comply with official regulations, focusing on risk management to improve animal health. The audits will target Norway’s largest aquaculture producers based on past performance and previous inspection results. 

In December 2024, the Norwegian government released an updated report on animal welfare, which suggests concrete goals to reduce fish mortality in aquaculture towards 5%, a significant reduction from the 16.7% salmon mortality rate reported by the Norwegian Veterinary Institute in 2023. However, this target has yet not been formalised into law, and currently there is no specific timeline. 

At the end of 2024, the European commission published a working document on the implementation of strategic guidelines on EU aquaculture. The guidelines present good practices and examples of implementations by EU & non-EU countries (Norway and UK). 

Fishing

The EU, Norway and the UK reached an agreement on fishing opportunities in the North Sea for 2025. This trilateral arrangement establishes total allowable catches (TAC) of over 958,000 tonnes, covering EU quotas of almost 463,000 tonnes for species such as cod, haddock, saithe, whiting, plaice and herring. 

Additionally, the EU and Norway reconfirmed stable reciprocal access to North Sea waters, allowing both EU and Norwegian fishers to maintain key fishing activities. However, an agreement on access for blue whiting, Atlanto-Scandian herring and Atlantic mackerel was not reached, with consultations set to continue.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, Norway and Russia reached the 2025 fishery agreement in the Barents Sea. The quota for most species has been decreased since last year and in particular the quota for Atlantic cod is 25% lower, which is the lowest allocation since 1991. Most quotas decreased due to concerns about declining fish stocks, which depend on a combination of factors including climate and environmental issues (e.g. changes in sea temperature) and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing activities (IUU). 

Transitioning to a more sustainable global food system

Fishing and aquaculture, while interconnected, present distinct risks and opportunities that can sometimes conflict. Declining wild fish catches, driven by depleting stocks and reduced total allowable catches (TAC), create opportunities for aquaculture to bridge supply gaps. However, the expansion of aquaculture can pose environmental risks, such as degradation of marine and freshwater ecosystems, which may further exacerbate the decline of wild fish populations.

Aquaculture and fishing are also closely linked through feed production. Carnivorous fish feed contains fishmeal and fish oils, which raises concerns over the increased pressure on wild fish stocks. However, improvements in feed conversion ratios (FCR), fish farm efficiency and extensive research into alternative feed, have alleviated pressure on wild fish. Nordic companies are actively exploring alternative feed sources to enhance self-sufficiency and reduce environmental footprints from feed ingredients. Innovations include the use of feed ingredients derived from insects, algae and novel sources like single-cell proteins (SCP).

Energy remained one of the major costs in the fishing fleet during 2023-2024. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from vessels is central to the seafood industry, along with reducing emissions from feed production and distribution for farmed fish. 

Prioritising sustainable practices and emissions reduction in both fisheries and aquaculture is critical to preserving marine ecosystems, supporting coastal communities and fostering the transition to a more resilient and sustainable global food system.

Nordea as a bank supports the fishing and aquaculture sectors in their climate transition by offering a range of different solutions and products to our large as well as small- and medium-sized customers.