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The Norwegian economy has shown greater resilience to higher rates and inflation than expected. Household consumption and housing prices have held up and unemployment has remained record low. Real wage growth and higher activity in the oil sector help underpin a high activity level also going forward.
Nordea chief economist: Inflation more stubborn than expected
The global economy got off to a good start in 2023, driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, strong labour markets and the reopening of the Chinese economy. This doesn’t mean that growth prospects have improved significantly since the winter, though. Inflation is still high, and monetary policy must be tightened further.
The volume of money in the Swedish economy has increased much faster than in previous years. At the same time, inflation is higher than it has been for decades. The relationship between money supply and inflation has been questioned for a long time, but now it is seen in a new light.
The Swedish economy is showing some resilience. Especially the labour market has been stable. But there are still major challenges. Not least, households are struggling with high inflation and increasing interest rates with reduced spending as a result.
Decrease in savings to boost consumption in Finland
Household purchasing power has weakened significantly over the past year. However, households have maintained their spending by tapping into their savings.
The economy has surprised positively in the first months of the year, but the outlook for the rest of the year is clearly weaker. The rise in prices and interest rates will continue to put pressure on consumers, and lower housing demand will decrease the volume of construction.
After tough negotiations the labour market parties have managed to reach a new collective agreement for the private sector – calling off the risk of a long and costly conflict. Moreover, the agreement will likely make it possible for wage earners to regain lost purchasing power.
After a period at full steam, the Danish economy is preparing for a soft landing. Household spending has been limited by high inflation, and the construction industry especially is being affected by high interest rates.
China is now one of the bright spots in the global economy thanks to its post-COVID rebound. Developed economies, however, continue to fight against inflation, which is still too high. As central banks tighten their monetary policy it remains to be seen whether they will be able to deliver a soft landing or if many economies will slide into a recession.
Adapting to a challenging market: Three Nordic companies share their financing strategies
A decade of cheap and ample Nordic corporate bond financing came to an abrupt end in 2022 amid soaring inflation and rising interest rates. How are companies adapting to the new normal? Three Nordic corporates shared their approach to funding with Nordea's Henrik Immelborn at the recent Treasury 360 Nordic conference.
As a bank, Nordea has a unique opportunity to facilitate our clients' transition towards a more sustainable and net-zero future. Regulations and policy measures must support banks in this task, says Martin Persson, Head of Large Corporates & Institutions, in Views: The Eurofi Magazine.
While the global sustainable bond market made a definite, if somewhat muted, return to growth in Q1 2023, the Nordic market stood out once again, showing strength despite some concerns carried over from 2022. With record sustainable volumes in Q1 and notable traction in the corporate Eurobond market, sustainable financing has found a successful home in the Nordics.