Economic Outlook
Large public budget surpluses and a declining debt ratio put Denmark in a good position to navigate the economy through an uncertain period. However, unexpectedly high tax payments have meant that excess liquidity in the money market has been lower than normal for some time. Financial market turmoil has meanwhile led to a weakening of the DKK.
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Economic Outlook
The global economy is subject to great uncertainty owing to President Trump’s tariff war with the rest of the world. We do not expect a global recession in our baseline scenario, and we believe that Europe, and in particular the Nordic region, is well positioned to weather the storm.
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Economic Outlook
Since the start of 2025, the performance of the SEK has been historically strong. The trade-weighted exchange rate has appreciated by 7% – the most since 1993.
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Economic Outlook
The global landscape has been jolted, partly due to the global trade war. This also affects Sweden, causing households and businesses to hesitate. However, the impact on growth is expected to be limited. There are conditions in place that will help to continue last year’s gradual recovery of the Swedish economy. Inflation will likely decline next year, but a stronger economic climate should reduce the Riksbank’s need to ease monetary policy.
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Economic Outlook
Households have been tested in recent years with higher inflation, interest rates and unemployment, as well as a stream of negative news from around the globe. However, now their fortunes have improved in many respects, as inflation and interest rates have fallen.
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Economic Outlook
As a small, open economy Denmark is traditionally highly sensitive to global developments. So the trade war is definitely bad news for economic activity in Denmark. However, it comes at a time when the Danish economy is exceptionally well prepared to handle the wave of uncertainty flowing across its borders. This is mainly due to a substantial savings surplus, solid public finances and a flexible labour market. Combined, this makes Denmark well prepared to handle the new global trends.
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Economic Outlook
President Trump’s policy actions have caused a lot of volatility in the financial markets and the economic outlook since our previous forecast. Uncertainty is high, and, given Trump’s tendency to cause chaos, this is expected to continue.
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Economic Outlook
The cautious growth seen in the Finnish economy is at risk of hitting a tariff wall. Lower inflation and interest rates are boosting purchasing power, but increased uncertainty threatens to put private consumption and investment on hold for a little longer. Housing market activity has increased, but prices are not rising yet. The oversupply in the rental market is still discouraging new construction.
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Economic Outlook
Economic growth in Norway is picking up, driven by increased consumer spending and housing construction. The tariff war and the global situation will, on balance, have little impact on the Norwegian economy.
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Economic Outlook
Housing investment has declined sharply in recent years, which continued towards end-2024, according to Statistics Norway. However, other indicators suggest housing construction has picked up. We question whether the official figures accurately reflect recent developments. Going forward, we expect increased housing investment will help boost economic growth in Norway.
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Economic Outlook
The global economy faces significant uncertainty due to President Trump’s tariff war with the rest of the world. We do not expect a global recession in our baseline scenario, and we believe that Europe, particularly the Nordic region, is well-positioned to weather the storm, says Helge Pedersen, Nordea Group Chief Economist.
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Economic Outlook
Join us for the release of the Nordea Economic Outlook on 21 May. Register for the webinar with our chief economist for an inside look at Nordea’s latest forecasts.
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