Finnish economic outlook: Waiting for the turnaround
Finland’s economic growth has been slow to materialise. Weak consumer confidence and falling housing prices continue to hold back private consumption and construction investments. However, the fundamentals of the economy have improved, so the conditions for recovery are present. There are already signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector.
Movements in the NOK exchange rate are closely tied to structural net NOK transactions. After several years of persistent negative pressure, in which many market participants had an underlying need to sell NOK, we are now seeing signs of a shift in main flows, indicating a gradual strengthening of the NOK in 2026.
The Norwegian economy has picked up but has recently been slightly weaker than estimated. While many areas of the economy are doing well, others are more challenging.
The global economy was characterised by a high degree of resilience in a tumultuous 2025, and there are prospects for renewed growth this year. There are, however, significant risks associated with the unpredictable geopolitical situation.
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Finland’s economic growth has been delayed this year. Economic fundamentals have improved, as lower interest rates and lower inflation improve consumers’ purchasing power. However, the long period of weak confidence in the economy continues to weigh on consumption and investment.
The previously high-flying Danish economy has had its wings clipped as historical growth figures have been revised lower and industrial production has declined, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector. Despite reduced altitude, the Danish economy is still very strong.
The monetary policy tightening initiated by the ECB in 2022 halted economic growth in Finland and sent home prices tumbling. So why isn’t the monetary policy loosening that began a year ago having a positive effect on the Finnish economy yet?
Global economic uncertainty has eased as Trump’s trade policies have become clearer and the US has signed trade agreements with several countries. The Nordic countries are in a strong position, but growth is subdued.
The historically low wage share in the manufacturing sector presents a clear upside risk to wage growth and to Norges Bank’s forecasts in the coming years. Consequently, it may take even longer before inflation returns to the inflation target.
Denmark is characterised by being a small and open economy, offering numerous advantages in a global landscape marked by rapid changes. However, there are also drawbacks.