Norwegian economic outlook: Limited room for rate cuts
Economic growth in Norway has picked up significantly, and the outlook is good despite global turmoil. Rising household purchasing power is the main reason for the current economic upturn.
The turbulent global environment has impacted the Swedish economy, leading to slower growth and a subdued start to the year. However, households are becoming more confident, and we expect spending to pick up going forward.
Some of the downside risks in the global economy have vanished since our spring forecast due to President Trump’s trade deals and the fiscal agreement in the US.
Some of the downside risks in the global economy have diminished since our spring forecast, thanks to President Trump’s trade deals and the fiscal agreement in the US. However, growth momentum in many countries remains weak, relying to some extent on fiscal easing as consumers and corporates continue to exercise caution.
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Large public budget surpluses and a declining debt ratio put Denmark in a good position to navigate the economy through an uncertain period. However, unexpectedly high tax payments have meant that excess liquidity in the money market has been lower than normal for some time. Financial market turmoil has meanwhile led to a weakening of the DKK.
Nordea Chief Economist: Nordics resilient amid global uncertainty
The global economy is subject to great uncertainty owing to President Trump’s tariff war with the rest of the world. We do not expect a global recession in our baseline scenario, and we believe that Europe, and in particular the Nordic region, is well positioned to weather the storm.
Since the start of 2025, the performance of the SEK has been historically strong. The trade-weighted exchange rate has appreciated by 7% – the most since 1993.
The global landscape has been jolted, partly due to the global trade war. This also affects Sweden, causing households and businesses to hesitate. However, the impact on growth is expected to be limited. There are conditions in place that will help to continue last year’s gradual recovery of the Swedish economy. Inflation will likely decline next year, but a stronger economic climate should reduce the Riksbank’s need to ease monetary policy.
Households have been tested in recent years with higher inflation, interest rates and unemployment, as well as a stream of negative news from around the globe. However, now their fortunes have improved in many respects, as inflation and interest rates have fallen.
As a small, open economy Denmark is traditionally highly sensitive to global developments. So the trade war is definitely bad news for economic activity in Denmark. However, it comes at a time when the Danish economy is exceptionally well prepared to handle the wave of uncertainty flowing across its borders.
President Trump’s policy actions have caused a lot of volatility in the financial markets and the economic outlook since our previous forecast. Uncertainty is high, and, given Trump’s tendency to cause chaos, this is expected to continue.