The global growth momentum has improved slightly since the beginning of this year thanks to China’s increased fiscal stimulus and declining inflation numbers in many western economies.
Nordea chief economist: Soft landing likely, but risks remain
The global economy has had a decent start to 2024, and a soft landing seems more likely. But strong labour markets place heavy demands on the calibration of monetary policy, and the neutral rate is probably higher than previously assumed. The new geopolitical reality still poses a high risk to the outlook for growth and inflation.
Population shift: Implications for Sweden's economy
Last year, Sweden saw the lowest population growth in more than 20 years. Much suggests that population growth will remain subdued in the coming years. This will impact the need for new homes, other investments as well as the labour market.
Swedish economic outlook: Searching for equilibrium
After several turbulent years the pieces of the puzzle are gradually falling into place for the Swedish economy. Households’ consumption pattern normalises, export companies’ production will balance with demand and inflation will stabilise at low levels.
How many rate cuts will we get over the next two to three years? Forecasts vary more than usual, mainly because of varying estimates of the normal interest rate. We expect fewer rate cuts and a higher normal interest rate than most.
Over the past year, the annual pace of inflation in Denmark has slowed much faster than in the Euro area. In 2024, this trend is expected to reverse, so that Danish consumer prices again will rise faster than in the Euro area.
High interest rates have sent the Finnish economy into a recession. Mortgage holders and the public sector are adapting their spending to respond to higher interest rates, which has weakened demand but will lead to more balanced finances.
Initial research suggests that using artificial intelligence can significantly improve productivity. Due to its high digital readiness, Finland is in a good position to leverage AI. After all, AI creates an opportunity for Finnish companies to get back on the productivity growth track.
The world economy continues to show great resilience, and a soft landing seems increasingly likely. But strong labour markets pose a significant challenge for monetary policy as the natural interest rate is likely higher than previously assumed, says Helge Pedersen, Nordea Group Chief Economist.
Nordea Economic Outlook webinar: The soft landing challenge
Join us for the release of the Nordea Economic Outlook on 24 April. Register for the webinar with our chief economist for an inside look at Nordea’s latest forecasts.
After several years of high growth, Danish economic activity has slowed down. The dampening is expected to be relatively mild and soon to be replaced by renewed progress during this year.