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Economic Outlook
Stubborn inflation in the global economic outlook
China is now one of the bright spots in the global economy thanks to its post-COVID rebound. Developed economies, however, continue to fight against inflation, which is still too high. As central banks tighten their monetary policy it remains to be seen whether they will be able to deliver a soft landing or if many economies will slide into a recession.
The Finnish athlete with her eyes on the ‘red dragon’
As a young orienteering talent in Finland, Tuuli Koivu dreamt about a career in sports. Now the Nordea chief economist strives to be on top of the global economy – and especially the future direction of China.
This is what affects how optimistic we are about our financial future
In our new study, the Nordic Pulse, we asked the people in the Nordics about their financial situation and how they value different areas of life. In some areas, the discrepancies between men and women seem to differ a lot. Our experts explain why.
Nordea Group Chief Economist: Central banks face a delicate balancing act
2023 looks set to be yet another uncertain and challenging year. Although inflation seems to have peaked, it is still an open question how much further monetary policy tightening is needed to lower it substantially.
It's not too late to protect your business against Sweden’s rising interest rates
The increase in interest rates in Sweden over the past year has been significant, and the upward trend is likely to continue in the near term. There is a way to protect your business against rising interest costs. Nordea's corporate loan with an interest rate cap offers the benefits of a floating-rate loan and the protection of a fixed interest rate ceiling.
How much will the pressure on the Norwegian economy affect wage growth and inflation going forward? That is one of the key questions Norges Bank needs to consider when setting interest rates. If labour shortages do not improve significantly ahead of this year’s pay talks, wage growth, and thus the interest rate peak, could exceed Norges Bank’s expectations.
Global growth is weak at the moment. However, there are signs that 2023 could uncork positive surprises, as mild weather has eased the energy crisis in Europe and China is set to rebound after ending its zero-COVID policy. From the financial markets’ perspective, one of the key questions is how easily inflation will come down in 2023.
Weaker purchasing power will dampen consumer spending in Norway, and unemployment may rise from a very low level. But we think the Norwegian economy will fare better than many other countries, one reason being sharply higher activity in the petroleum sector.
Lower prices and stagnating turnover are dominating the Danish housing market. The decline is especially caused by rapidly rising interest rates, and it is expected to continue until 2024. However, the starting point is strong, and that is why the situation after the financial crisis will not likely be repeated.
Swedish pay talks in the new inflation environment
Half of all wage earners will get new wage deals in early 2023. The unions’ wage claim is 4.4%, while employers’ bid is 2.0% and a one-off amount of SEK 3,000.
The Danish economy is clearly positioned for a period with lower activity. However, there is a risk that the slowdown will be self-reinforcing – not least in the housing market where a significant correction of market prices is taking place.