Follow our expert insights about how the markets and inflation develop in the Nordics and globally.
Economic Outlook
Sweden's economy is weakening from a strong position
Rate hikes and high inflation are putting a damper on the Swedish economy, and unemployment will rise. A stabilisation is expected during 2024, but the recovery will be slow as the economy gradually adjusts to higher interest rates.
Swedish home prices are falling rapidly as households adjust to surging mortgage rates. The situation is not as serious as in the 1990s, but there is risk of a sharp price correction.
Overheating in the US, the tight COVID stance and real estate sector slowdown in China, the energy market crisis in Europe and geopolitical risks are all denting growth prospects. At the same time, inflationary pressures are strong and will continue to be central banks’ main headache in the coming months.
The energy crisis has hit the European economy hard, and the risk of a recession in the Euro area is real. Inflation has reached the highest level since the early 1980s, and central banks seem determined to fight it through aggressive monetary policy, says Helge Pedersen, Nordea Group Chief Economist.
E-commerce after COVID: It ain’t over till it’s over
Retail sales have been migrating online from stores for years. The pandemic gave a big boost to this migration, which has now eased off. In this Nordea On Your Mind podcast, Johan Trocmé and Viktor Sonebäck talk about what will come next, how the online share of retail sales could resume its structural growth trend, with demographics as a key driver.
A great success, our very first Trading Floor Open House (video)
What's it like to work on a huge trading floor at Nordea? What kind of people work there, and what do they actually do? It all became clear for our curious visitors as we opened the doors to our trading floor, offering them the rare opportunity to learn, see and feel for themselves – and give them answers to all their questions. It was a success – a great day, for our guests and for us.
The tight labour market, record-high demand for workers and recent inflation spike suggest that wage growth will be higher going forward. We revise up our wage forecast, and the Riksbank faces new challenges.
Russia’s attack against Ukraine will slow down economic growth in Finland this year. A strong labour market, the lifting of restrictions and the savings accumulated by households during the Covid pandemic will underpin growth in the service sector.
How Finland's economy is maintaining its competitiveness
Export prices in Finland have kept up with rapidly rising import prices, keeping the country’s terms of trade unchanged. Zero-emission electricity generation is becoming a source of competitive advantage in manufacturing, which supports investment growth.
The Swedish economy is currently stronger than it has been for many years. However, the economy is entering a phase of subdued growth as high inflation and rapid rate hikes are slowing activity.
The Russian assault on Ukraine, very high inflation and China’s lockdowns imply a high degree of uncertainty in the global economy and take the growth forecasts somewhat lower for 2022.