Nordea Chief Economist: Increased chances of a soft landing
The prospects for the global economy are still relatively good despite significant monetary policy tightening. Inflation has fallen sharply, and central banks will likely start cutting rates this year. This increases the chances of a soft landing, but uncertainty is high.
Slightly lower interest rates, continued high wage growth and low unemployment will gradually improve households’ purchasing power. We therefore foresee better times ahead for both the Norwegian economy and the housing market.
Sweden will see weak economic growth in the near term. Inflation will likely normalise and interest rates go down this year, which will provide support and lower the risks of a deep recession. However, the interest rate level will stay higher than before the pandemic.
High interest rates have sent the Finnish economy into a recession. The outlook for the first half of the year is unfavourable for private consumption, construction and exports alike.
Finland is in desperate need of investments in education, research and development in order to boost productivity growth, which has stalled for the past 15 years, to being on par with peer countries.
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