Business growth

The world is uncertain. Does your board have a macro compass?

10-09-2026

Helge J. Pedersen, Chief Economist at Nordea in Denmark, argues that macroeconomics is not background noise for boards – it is the economic and political environment in which every company operates, and understanding it is essential for making the right decisions.

Macroeconomics reflects the economic and political environment in which all kinds of companies operate – whether you are a large multinational or a small local business. So it matters to everybody.

It matters for daily operations. But it matters even more when developing strategies for the years to come. We are living in a world characterised by increasing uncertainty such as geopolitical tensions, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, chaotic tariff policies, ageing populations reshaping the economic landscape, and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence transforming entire industries. That is why macroeconomics has become one of the top items on board agendas around the world. And I am certain it will remain there for years to come.

It applies to every company – large and small

Knowledge of GDP growth in your domestic or export markets, inflation, wage trends, interest rates, exchange rates – all of these have a direct bearing on how your company operates and competes.

And it is not least important when making strategic decisions. Should you increase your investment? If so, how should you finance it? What do demographics tell you about future demand? What is consumer confidence signalling? These are all essential inputs for making the right decisions for your company.

The board's role: Scenarios, not just forecasts

The board can use macroeconomics in several ways. High-frequency data can give a picture of the current economic environment. But macro is perhaps most powerful as a tool for building scenarios about the future – not just a baseline, but also a positive and a negative scenario in which the key variables for your company are stress tested if they deviate from expectations.

By working with scenario analysis, you are much better prepared when something happens. And in the world we are living in today, we know that many things can happen.

Knowledge of GDP growth in your domestic or export markets, inflation, wage trends, interest rates, exchange rates – all of these have a direct bearing on how your company operates and competes.

Three pieces of advice

1. Identify the macro-economic data most relevant for your company
Not all economic indicators matter equally to your business. Identify the variables that most directly affect your revenues, costs, financing and competitive position – and make sure those are tracked and reported to the board consistently.

2. Work with scenarios, not just individual forecasts
A single forecast gives you one view of the future. Scenarios give you a range – and a basis for decisions under uncertainty. Build a baseline, a positive case and a negative case and stress test your key assumptions against each of them.

3. Translate macro input into concrete decisions
The goal is not to follow the economy for its own sake. It is to turn macroeconomic insight into action – on pricing, investment strategies, financing and general market preparedness. If a macro update does not lead to a question or a decision, it has not done its job

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