Crossing 1.5°C: Assessing Nordic climate targets and delivery

With global warming averaging 1.48°C in 2023–25, crossing the 1.5°C threshold is now widely assessed as unavoidable (UN EP, 2026). Beyond that level, climate risks and impacts will reach a dangerous intensity, and the focus must shift to minimising peak temperatures and eventually bringing them back down.

Implied warming rises to 2.0-2.1°C

Our annual review of Nordic companies' emission targets shows that, beyond a few exceptions, commitment to the climate remains firm. When assessing the temperature rise implied by their targets, however, we drop 1.5°C as our main reference scenario and estimate that even full delivery implies 1.7°C global warming for Scope 1 and 2. This changes if we add in Scope 3, which implies that temperatures could reach 2.0-2.1°C. In our view, this calls for increased urgency and ambition from leading companies.

Nordic companies retain their climate ambition

On the positive side, Nordic companies are broadly maintaining their climate commitments. On average, more companies have climate targets than last year (63% for Scope 1 and 2 versus 55% in 2025, and 54% for Scope 3 versus 47%). 

Delivery on Scope 1 and 2 targets is progressing well, with the majority of emissions assessed as on track. Scope 1 and 2 emissions of the companies in our coverage universe declined by 3% year-on-year in 2025 and are down 34% since 2020. Although Scope 1 is somewhat flatlining, Scope 2 can carry large decarbonisation weight for a while longer.

Scope 3 remains the elephant in the room

Scope 3 emissions account for 97% of universe emissions and remain the key challenge. Absolute Scope 3 was flat year-on-year, and we assess that half of our universe Scope 3 is not on track with targets. Barring a few sectors and despite all of its shortcomings, we expect Scope 3 to become the main focus of decarbonisation strategies in the years ahead.

Source: Company data and Nordea estimates

SBTi Version 2.0 to sharpen focus on delivery

From February 2027, the new SBTi corporate standard Version 2.0 will enter into force. It shifts focus from ambition setting to transparency and accountability. Under Version 2.0, climate targets must be formally approved by the board, progress has to be reported annually, companies have to disclose key barriers that prevented progress, and at the end of each five-year cycle, an assessment of delivery is required and must be externally assured. In our view, this will sharpen focus on delivery across all Scopes, but in particular Scope 3, as it is the trickiest category to deliver on.