Strong surge in exports beyond Denmark’s borders

Over the past five years, the value of total Danish exports of goods and services has risen by more than 70%. Even when adjusted for price development, the period shows a real increase of more than 40%. Thus, the rise in net exports has been a major driver of Denmark’s solid economic growth in recent years.

Ways to measure exports

Traditionally, exports are defined as goods and services produced in Denmark and subsequently sold in foreign markets. These are also the figures published in official foreign trade statistics, which follow the border-crossing principle that a transaction must cross the Danish border to be counted as export.

Globalisation – along with the rapid advance of Denmark’s pharmaceutical industry – has sharpened the focus on exports that never cross a physical border. These appear in the balance of payments statistics, which applies the change of ownership principle, defining activity based on where the company is domiciled. This means that sales from branches and subsidiaries of Danish companies located abroad are counted as exports – even if they never cross the Danish border.

A / Strong growth in foreign-produced exports

Goods exports that do not cross the border, DKK in billions

The share of goods exports that do not cross the border falls into two categories. The first is so-called “processing” where goods are processed by a Danish company and then sold abroad. The other is “merchanting” where goods are bought and sold abroad. Together, these two categories generated revenues of DKK 340 billion over the past year alone – accounting for more than a quarter of Denmark’s total goods exports in that period.

Foreign exports provide good protection

A little over one-fifth of total goods exports are sold in the US. That’s twice the level of ten years ago, and over the past four quarters the value of goods exports to the US has exceeded the combined total for Germany and Sweden. Pharmaceuticals make up a substantial share of these exports to the US.

The growing importance of the US market has sparked concerns that higher US tariffs could trigger a sharp drop in exports – ultimately causing an abrupt slowdown in Denmark’s overall economic activity. Preliminary figures, however, show no signs of a significant slowdown in goods exports. 

Part of the explanation is likely the trade agreement concluded with the US on 27 July 2025, which – with certain exceptions – imposes a general tariff of 15% on goods exports from EU countries. Another key reason for the continued growth is that around 75% of goods exports to the US are produced outside Denmark’s borders and are thus much better protected against rising tariffs.