Follow the economy across the Nordic countries and economic changes worldwide.
Economic Outlook
Growth pause for the Danish economy
After several years of high growth, Danish economic activity has slowed down. The dampening is expected to be relatively mild and soon to be replaced by renewed progress during this year.
Swedish household debt relative to income is falling for the first time since the mid-1990s – contributing to resilience in the long term, but raising questions about household spending and housing market trends in the near term.
The trend in Denmark is opposite to that of many other countries where large public deficits have taken hold. The solid finances help to ensure stable, low interest rates in Denmark.
In the next couple of years, activity in the Norwegian economy will be less affected by petroleum price changes than previously. But large energy shocks will impact price growth and thus Norges Bank’s interest rate decisions.
Nordea Chief Economist: Increased chances of a soft landing
The prospects for the global economy are still relatively good despite significant monetary policy tightening. Inflation has fallen sharply, and central banks will likely start cutting rates this year. This increases the chances of a soft landing, but uncertainty is high.
Slightly lower interest rates, continued high wage growth and low unemployment will gradually improve households’ purchasing power. We therefore foresee better times ahead for both the Norwegian economy and the housing market.
Sweden will see weak economic growth in the near term. Inflation will likely normalise and interest rates go down this year, which will provide support and lower the risks of a deep recession. However, the interest rate level will stay higher than before the pandemic.
Central banks will be reversing their monetary policies and start cutting rates in the coming months. The weak economic outlook and resultant declining price pressure trend are the biggest reasons for the turnaround.
High interest rates have sent the Finnish economy into a recession. The outlook for the first half of the year is unfavourable for private consumption, construction and exports alike.
Finland is in desperate need of investments in education, research and development in order to boost productivity growth, which has stalled for the past 15 years, to being on par with peer countries.
Chief Economist's Corner: A challenging year lies ahead
Developments in the world economy and the financial markets in 2023 were fortunately much better than feared. Now a new year awaits us, which already promises to be very challenging, according to Nordea Group Chief Economist Helge Pedersen.
On the ground in China: Chief economist finds gloomier outlook
Chief Economist Tuuli Koivu recently returned from a week in China – her first trip there since before the COVID-19 pandemic. Local sentiment on the Chinese economy was quite different this time around. She shares her key takeaways and updated outlook.